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Decision report · Edition 7 · Jul 2026

Monthly coffee subscription: the roaster's subscriber club

A decision report for the roaster who already produces and sells, and is considering opening a subscription club. Cohort economics, the shipping staircase, a verified legal framework and an adversarial review.

Scope: SpainEdition: 7July 202654 pages

€990/ individual licence

Instant-download PDF, 54 pages
Cohort economics calculated shipment by shipment, with published and verified green-coffee, shipping and payment rates
A grid of 60 combinations of shipment size, cadence and household profile
The legal framework read in the Spanish official gazette: renewal notice and right of withdrawal applied to coffee
An adversarial review that attacks the report's own thesis

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What's included

From official data to the decision

Each section answers a concrete question asked by the roaster considering a subscription club.

The physical constraint, not marketing intuition

Real household coffee consumption from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture's official panel, cross-referenced with average household size from the national statistics institute, against what the market's entry plan ships. Frequency stops being a marketing decision.

Cohort economics, shipment by shipment

Net revenue, green coffee, in-house roasting, packaging, shipping, payments and platform: every line of the standard shipment, with its verified rate and declared confidence level. And subscriber value over 24 months, not revenue.

The shipping-cost staircase by weight band

Correos' official 2026 rates applied to the weight actually dispatched —coffee, bags and box— which decides which shipment size makes money and which hands it to the carrier.

The legal framework, read at source

The renewal notice introduced into the Spanish consolidated consumer protection act, with the distinction between fixed-term contract and open-ended subscription; and why roasted coffee is not exempt from the right of withdrawal.

Contents

Consumption, cohort economics, legal framework and adversarial review

01 The decision, with its thresholds

02 The unit economics of a shipment

03 What was asked and on what evidence it is answered

04 Your customer does not drink what you send them

05 Eleven models, and which one is yours

06 A market of tens of thousands, not of millions

07 Who you sell to, and where you lose them

08 What is blowing, and in which direction

09 Five operators, audited on 27 July 2026

10 The plan that makes money is the one fewest people can drink

11 The number that decides, and that you do not have

12 Cadence does not save the business, but it explains the leak

13 Monthly rotation is a cost, not an ornament

14 72 grams of cardboard decide your profitability

15 The only thing technology can fix for you

16 The law makes you remind your customer that they can leave

17 Thirteen parcels a year are not a green argument

18 Why charging up front makes you lose money

19 The financial model

20 Sensitivity: the full decision space

21 What kills it, on what signal and at what threshold

22 Ninety days to turn two unknowns into data

23 The contrary case, and where this report is weakest

24 Conclusions and recommendation

25 Where every number in this report comes from

A Evidence base and coverage of the brief

Preview

A look inside

Professional design, verified data and clear charts in every section.

Sample of some pages from the report. The full version includes all tables, charts and sources.

Clear pricing

The analysis you need, at an accessible price

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Frequently asked questions

Before you buy

What format do I receive?

A 54-page PDF ready to read on any device or print. You receive it by email immediately after payment.

Who is this report for?

For the roaster who already produces and sells, and is considering adding a subscription club. The model reasons from your incremental cost of roasting, not from a contract roaster's rate.

Is it useful if I don't have a roastery yet?

Partly. The consumption constraint, the shipping staircase and the legal framework apply equally, but the unit economics assume you already roast. If you buy the roast in, our coffee e-commerce report is a better fit.

Does it include figures or only method?

Both. Every figure comes from a reproducible model and each assumption carries its declared confidence level, including the eleven that are our own estimates and that you should replace with your data.

Does it give a clear verdict?

Yes: GO, conditional GO, WAIT or NO-GO, with the numeric thresholds behind it and an adversarial review that attacks that very conclusion.